Canberra's 10 best and worst property markets, and wildly divergent 2025 expectations
Canberra property prices have been subdued but expectations are rising that the ACT will see stellar growth in 2025, although some commentators are treading more cautiously.
Canberra’s housing market was one of 2024’s worst performers amid surging listing and new apartment supply, but with the ACT election out of the way and rates headed south, things are starting to stir, experts say.
Dwelling values in the nation’s capital fell 0.4 per cent over the year to December, against national growth of 4.9 per cent, according to CoreLogic.
Total property listings in the ACT have now been growing for 34 consecutive months — longer than in any other capital city — and are up 12 per cent on a year ago, according to REA Group.
Yet there are green shoots on the horizon in terms of capital growth.
The Real Estate Institute of the ACT (REIACT) says the market now appears to be bottoming out, with buyers stirring once again as interest cuts firm towards near-certainty.
Top 10 suburbs for house sale price growth |
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| Suburb | Median | Annual Change | 5-year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmerston | $975,000 | 11.4% | 58.2% |
| Curtin | $1,478,000 | 6.7% | 59.8% |
| Dunlop | $850,000 | 6.3% | 44.5% |
| Gungahlin | $1,000,000 | 6.1% | 37.6% |
| Gordon | $855,000 | 6.1% | 58.6% |
| Taylor | $1,100,000 | 5.5% | - |
| Calwell | $830,000 | 5.1% | 41.3% |
| Weston | $990,000 | 4.8% | 37.5% |
| Latham | $792,000 | 4.2% | 36.8% |
| Coombs | $821,500 | 3.2% | - |
Bottom 10 suburbs for house sale price growth |
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| Suburb | Median | Annual Change | 5-year Change |
| Wanniassa | $850,500 | 0.1% | 42.3% |
| Narrabundah | $1,265,000 | -1.9% | 33.2% |
| Chisholm | $810,000 | -2.7% | 34.3% |
| Ainslie | $1,450,000 | -3.3% | 50.6% |
| Moncrieff | $905,000 | -5.2% | 33.1% |
| Rivett | $880,000 | -5.4% | - |
| O'Connor | $1,350,000 | -6.9% | 40.6% |
| Bonner | $875,000 | -7.9% | 31.6% |
| Red Hill | $2,050,000 | -8.4% | 29.5% |
| Denman Prospect | $1,015,000 | -22.2% | - |
Peter Munckton, the Bank of Queensland’s top economist, has tipped Canberra houses to be among the nation’s best performers over the coming two years.
He predicts Canberra, Perth and Darwin will be the strongest performing markets for houses, tipping 12 per cent price growth for each market over the coming 24 months.
REIACT CEO Maria Edwards said the ACT had been a renter’s market but things were starting to change.
“There has been a lot of apartments built, so the vacancy rates on apartments are higher than houses,” Ms Edwards told Australian Property Investor Magazine.
“But now the market seems to have bottomed out, people are more active, especially given that rates appear to be heading downwards.”
Ms Edwards said the market was expected to improve now that the ACT election, held in October, was over.
“Now that the election’s over things should improve because there’s a bit more stability for forward planning in the public service etcetera,” she said.
“That was playing on a few people’s minds”.
In the year to December, Canberra apartment prices fell 2.7 per cent and house prices notched up a modest 0.4 per cent, according to CoreLogic.
Top 10 suburbs for unit sale price growth |
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| Suburb | Median | Annual Change | 5-year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mawson | $717,750 | 20.3% | 35.2% |
| Bruce | $530,000 | 17.8% | 48.9% |
| Harrison | $520,000 | 11.8% | 55.2% |
| Lyneham | $550,000 | 6.0% | 34.1% |
| Watson | $562,500 | 4.7% | 16.0% |
| Kingston | $689,500 | 3.3% | 23.3% |
| Turner | $655,000 | 2.3% | 21.3% |
| Franklin | $508,500 | 1.7% | 39.5% |
| Gungahlin | $460,000 | 1.4% | 18.1% |
| Wright | $517,000 | 1.4% | 21.6% |
Bottom 10 suburbs for unit sale price growth |
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| Suburb | Median | Annual Change | 5-year Change |
| Barton | $715,000 | -5.0% | 49.0% |
| Narrabundah | $687,500 | -6.7% | - |
| Griffith | $632,500 | -7.0% | 34.4% |
| Campbell | $687,250 | -7.1% | 18.1% |
| Denman Prospect | $555,000 | -7.5% | 5.7% |
| Greenway | $472,500 | -9.1% | 13.9% |
| Lawson | $640,000 | -9.2% | 27.7% |
| City | $516,500 | -13.9% | -1.6% |
| Forrest | $835,000 | -15.4% | 39.9% |
At a suburb-by-suburb level the market was fragmented in 2024, according to the Domain House Price Report, based on research by Australian Property Monitors (APM).
Denman Prospect, a new suburb in Canberra’s west, was hit hardest in the year, with house prices falling 22.2 per cent, to a median of $1.015 million.
The second biggest drop was for apartments in in the inner suburb of Forrest, where prices slumped 15.4 per cent, to a median of $835,000.
Affordable suburbs performing best
Ahmad Souweid, an agent with Blackshaw Manuka, said oversupply was a substantial problem in certain markets.
He said Denman Prospect had been very popular, but now the market was oversupplied, both for apartments and houses.
“Denman Prospect was the area but now there’s just too much stock in the area,” Mr Souweid told API Magazine.
“There’s so much high-density but it’s houses as well, there’s just too much available, which will make any market dwindle,” he said.
Like elsewhere in the nation, affordability was weighing on buyer sentiment.
The best performing ACT suburbs tended to be those where prices were lower, and worst performers where prices were higher, although this was less pronounced than for many capital city markets.
That was in part due to the high proportion of government workers, with average wages in the ACT typically higher than elsewhere.
In the leafy inner suburb of Red Hill, where prices are highest, house values fell 8.4 per cent in the year, to a median of $2.05 million.
O’Connor, where the median house price is now $1.35 million, was the fourth worst performer for houses, seeing a drop of 6.9 per cent.
In the blue-chip suburb of Ainslie, prices fell 3.3 per cent to $1.45 million.
According to CoreLogic, Canberra’s median house value is now $965,910, compared to $1,008,719 for the combined capitals, about 4 per cent less.
The median apartment price in the nation’s capital was now $587,478, compared to $687,670 for the combined capitals — a discount of 14.6 per cent.
The only capital cities where median unit prices were lower are Hobart, at $521,109, and Darwin at $366,616.
Of the top five performing Canberra suburbs for apartments over the past year, four have median prices below the ACT median.
They include Belconnen in the city’s north-west, where prices grew 17.8 per cent to a median of $530,000; and Gungahlin in city’s outer north, where prices increased 11.8 per cent to $520,000, according to the Domain House Price Report.
Could rate rise actually soften prices?
Canberra buyers’ agent Jonny Warren, of Jonny Warren Properties, said it was difficult to forecast where prices would head.
Buyers were returning the market, with “lots of buyers out there”, but he expected things to cool again by winter, and that interest rate cuts could paradoxically lead to market softening.
“If they do this rate cut a lot of people who are struggling are going to put their houses on the market thinking there’s going to be a boom,” Mr Warren said.
“But it will do the opposite, it will saturate the market.
“Buyers will see they have more choice and days on market will grow,” he said.
Overall, Canberra dwelling values were now down 6.8 per cent on their May 2022 peak, but up 30.3 per cent since the onset of Covid and up 62.1 per cent for the decade, according to CoreLogic.
According to REA Group, nationwide, total listings are up 5.7 per cent on a year ago, with new listings are up 7.9 per cent.
The group, which operates the nation’s biggest listing site, realestate.com.au, said total listings in the ACT had now been rising for 34 consecutive months, followed by Hobart (33 consecutive months).
Total listings had been growing for 15 consecutive months in Sydney and for 17 consecutive months in Melbourne.
Listings are considered to be new for the first month the property is listed on the site for sale.
At a nationwide level, Cameron Kusher, Director of Economic Research, REA Group, said prices would continue soften.
“Price growth slowed throughout 2024 and with more choice for buyers we can expect price growth will continue to moderate this year,” he said.
Mr Munckton of the Bank of Queensland had a vastly differing opinion, saying he expected those markets where performance had been weakest over 2024 to be some of the strongest performers over the coming two years.
For standalone houses nationwide over 2025 and 2026 he tips total price growth of 7 per cent, led by Canberra and Darwin, at 12 per cent each.
He expects house prices to grow by 9 per cent in Melbourne, 8 per cent in Brisbane and by 3 per cent in Sydney, over the two years.
