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Australia's housing downturn is broadening, but is there a signal investors are missing?

House prices are falling across much of Australia, mortgage stress is elevated and property activity is weakening – but a little-known dataset could offer investors another way to gauge where housing risks may be heading.

A winter's day storm and rainbow aerial view over the estate of Springthorpe near Bundoora in Macleod, Melbourne.
While storm clouds may be gathering over the property market, there are forecasting tools and indicators that could help investors find the rainbow amidst the gloom. (Image source: FiledIMAGE/Shutterstock.com + API Magazine)

Australia’s housing downturn is broadening.

Cotality reported national dwelling values

fell 0.9 per cent in August, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, while 93 per cent of capital-city suburbs recorded falls over winter.

But the headline index is only part of an important story.

Cotalitys tiered data show the adjustment has been concentrated toward the expensive end of the market. Since the end of 2025, national dwelling values are down arou…

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