Jobs, tariffs and expanding war: the constantly changing variables that could force RBA's hand
Stronger-than-expected jobs growth, rising oil prices and escalating Middle East tensions had sharply increased the chances of another Reserve Bank interest rate hike, but then the inflation data came out.
Yemen and the Red Sea has become the latest geopolitical hotspot that will have the Reserve Bank's full attention. (Image source: Shutterstock/Ivan Marc + API Magazine)
What just weeks ago appeared a long shot had a few days ago doubled its probability.
An interest rate hike was given minimal chance of being imposed on borrowers but the recent escalation in Middle East fuel supply blockages, which now extends beyond the Arabian Gulf to the Red Sea, and an employment surge past all expectations had changed the game.
Markets placed a nearly 30 per cent chance of an interest rate rise on 12 August, up from 16 pe…
