Perth’s affluent golden triangle squaring up to red hot outer suburbs
The Perth property market is widely tipped to continue leading the nation in property price growth for the next few years but will that continued growth come from the outer areas or the coveted western suburbs?
Perth’s affluent western suburbs may be on the verge of delivering the type of high capital growth that has been the norm in Perth’s more affordable outer suburbs for the past three or so years.
While the very elite segments of the market are flatlining or dipping – think the rarefied air of Peppermint Grove, Dalkeith and their ilk – signs are emerging that the suburbs between Perth’s CBD and the coast are about to join the property boom party that has seen Perth deliver the fastest growth rates in the country.
Perth’s so-called Golden Triangle, follows a westward path from the city to the beaches of Scarborough, south to North Fremantle, and northeast back up the Swan River to the city.
Within this tract of highly sought after land are the western suburbs that have lagged behind the suburban fringe and working class suburbs but are showing signs of building on their recent stable but less spectacular recent growth rates.
Units in suburbs such as Shenton Park, Cottesloe, Claremont and Mount Hawthorn have notched up double-digit growth since December.
No western suburbs have recorded increases above 7 per cent for houses in that time, as shown in the tables below provided exclusively to API Magazine by REIWA.
Top performing suburbs in SA4 Inner region - Houses
| Suburb | Median annual house sale price to Apr 2024 | Change since Dec 2023 | Annual change to Apr 2024 | Annual house sales to Apr 2024 | Sales volume change since Apr 2023 | Median selling days Feb-Apr 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mount Lawley | $1,450,000 | 7.0% | 20.8% | 109 | -11.4% | 15 |
| 2 | Floreat | $1,810,000 | 4.9% | 1.1% | 103 | -10.4% | 14 |
| 3 | City Beach | $2,750,000 | 4.8% | 7.8% | 88 | -5.4% | 24 |
| 4 | Nedlands | $2,100,000 | 3.2% | 6.6% | 111 | -25.0% | 12 |
| 5 | Subiaco | $1,800,000 | 2.9% | 13.6% | 71 | -23.7% | 9 |
| 6 | Swanbourne | $2,300,000 | 2.4% | 1.1% | 48 | -27.3% | 12 |
| 7 | Leederville | $1,130,000 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 31 | -35.4% | 9 |
| 8 | Cottesloe | $3,445,000 | 1.9% | 6.0% | 97 | 22.8% | 28 |
| 9 | Claremont | $1,932,000 | 1.7% | -2.7% | 89 | 2.3% | 17 |
| 10 | Shenton Park | $1,800,000 | 1.7% | 18.0% | 53 | 3.9% | 7 |
Top performing suburbs in SA4 Inner region - Units
| Suburb | Median annual house sale price to Apr 2024 | Change since Dec 2023 | Annual change to Apr 2024 | Annual house sales to Apr 2024 | Sales volume change since Apr 2023 | Median selling days Feb-Apr 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shenton Park | $545,000 | 14.1% | 11.8% | 47 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 2 | Cottesloe | $922,500 | 12.2% | 0.9% | 44 | -51.1% | 32 |
| 3 | Claremont | $804,000 | 10.1% | 22.6% | 165 | 25.0% | 19 |
| 4 | Mount Hawthorn | $545,000 | 10.1% | 11.7% | 32 | -30.4% | 9 |
| 5 | Glendalough | $315,000 | 8.2% | 21.2% | 79 | 27.4% | 12 |
| 6 | Jolimont | $500,000 | 6.4% | -9.9% | 29 | -32.6% | 10 |
| 7 | Subiaco | $595,000 | 6.3% | 3.7% | 247 | 18.2% | 11 |
| 8 | Highgate | $515,000 | 6.2% | 17.7% | 99 | 65.0% | 14 |
| 9 | Mosman Park | $380,000 | 5.6% | 10.1% | 128 | 58.0% | 14 |
| 10 | Mount Lawley | $415,000 | 3.8% | 6.8% | 224 | 30.2% | 13 |
Source: REIWA. Filtered suburbs with 28 or more house/unit sales to April 2024.
When it comes to houses, growth is strongest for those suburbs near or on the fringe of the western suburbs zone, such as Mount Lawley, Subiaco and Shenton Park.
But the house market might be about to clock up the sort of numbers seen in the outer suburbs, where capital growth of 15-30 per cent has been unfolding.
Hamish Laidlaw, Sales Agent, Xceed Real Estate, said he had not seen buyer activity like it in 20 years of working in the western suburbs, particularly those suburbs to the immediate northwest of the city, such as entertainment and café precincts like Mount Hawthorn and Leederville.
“The market has gone absolutely bonkers.
“There is a lot of bullish behaviour among buyers competing for properties and we've seen prices increase in some areas by up to $100,000 a month.
“This demand has increased rapidly since the end of January up until now.”
He cited some recent examples of the market defying the currently available statistics.
“A property appraised in January for $1.13 million (based on recent comparable sales) then listed to the open market beginning of April and sold a week later for $1.4 million.
“Another example is a property appraised and listed for $1.85 million in February, hitting the open market beginning of April, selling a week later for $2.175 million.”
Mr Laidlaw said that as further settlement data reached the desks of the statisticians, the western suburbs might be seen to be performing better than the numbers suggest.
Outer suburbs driving current growth
While the Perth property market as a whole recorded 14.5 per cent house sale price growth over the year to April 2024, the rate of growth has varied at the top and lower ends of the market.
The rate of house price growth has slowed across many of Perth’s premium suburbs in the past 12 months, with many recording growth below that of wider Perth.
Most of these areas recorded strong growth post-Covid, when there was a drive to lifestyle suburbs, according to REIWA CEO Cath Hart.
“What we are seeing now is a period of consolidation.
“Despite the slowdown in growth, the median house price in these (western) suburbs remains above their previous highs.
“It’s a different story in the unit market.
“Traditionally many buyers prefer houses, however, competition for houses is high and prices have risen strongly recently, while units have remained relatively stable.
“This makes units a more affordable option for people seeking home ownership, particularly in Perth’s premium markets.
“Generally, the strongest house sale price growth is being recorded in Perth’s more affordable suburbs, such as Armadale, which recorded a 35.9 per cent increase in its median house sale price in the year to April.
“There is very strong demand for affordable homes across Perth and this has pushed prices up significantly in these areas,” Ms Hart said.
Perth’s five most expensive suburbs
| Suburb | Median annual house sale price | Median house price growth | Sales in year to April 2024 | Annual change in house sales | Median house selling days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peppermint Grove | $3,600,000 | -13.2% | 22 | 10.0% | 89pepp |
| 2 | Dalkeith | $3,500,000 | 2.9% | 43 | -32.8% | 22 |
| 3 | Cottesloe | $3,422,500 | 5.3% | 71 | -25.3% | 29 |
| 4 | City Beach | $2,750,000 | 7.8% | 64 | -34.7% | 17 |
| 5 | Swanbourne | $2,300,000 | 1.1% | 41 | -31.7% | 8 |
Perth’s five cheapest suburbs
| Suburb | Median annual house sale price | Median house price growth | Sales in year to April 2024 | Annual change in house sales | Median house selling days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medina | $388,000 | 19.4% | 62 | -25.3% | 5 |
| 2 | Midland | $423,000 | 15.9% | 140 | -2.1% | 8 |
| 3 | Calista | $426,500 | 22.0% | 46 | 4.5% | 6 |
| 4 | Mandurah | $428,500 | 22.4% | 190 | -29.9% | 11 |
| 5 | Armadale | $430,000 | 34.4% | 342 | -24.3% | 8 |
Source: REIWA.
Perth’s property price rampage was described by Julie Kelley, Global Sales and Marketing Manager for aussieproperty.com, as “phenomenal”.
Ms Kelley pointed out that the median house price in Armadale is $435,000, with approximately $115,000 added in value over the year. Perth’s third most expensive suburb, Cottesloe (median sales price $3.45 million) has experienced 6 per cent growth over the past year that equates to $195,000.
“But overall the Golden Triangle suburbs are experiencing growth in the single digit percentages, with some suburbs experiencing price falls, such as Claremont and Peppermint Grove.
“Sales listings for houses are low in this region and we are seeing more construction of townhouses and apartments, popular with residents living in these suburbs who are buying for themselves as downsizers or their children.”
Ms Kelley said she still expects strong capital performance over the next 12 months as supply shortages remain particularly acute throughout the coastal western corridor.
“Houses are being held tightly long term and securing land for large unit developments is difficult.
“We will continue to see boutique developments but expect to pay a pretty penny, as demand is high.”
Can the western suburbs join the party?
Property prices in Perth are widely tipped to continue rising at the fastest pace in the nation for another half decade.
Independent industry forecaster Oxford Economics Australia’s Residential Property Prospects report noted that population growth and the prospect of lower interest rates would underpin a price increase by 30 per cent to 2027.
Whether this was driven by the outer or inner suburbs was yet to be seen but employment would be one factor to watch.
Erwin Edlinger, Managing Director, Effective Property Solutions, told API Magazine that the two halves of the market often moved in differing cycles.
“Outer suburban property investor demand from the east coast is unprecedented in my 20-year property career.
“East coast investors are seeing significant value in these outer suburbs compared to comparable suburbs in their home states.
“The western suburbs market, on the other hand, works counter-cyclical to the outer ring, dependent on the strength of the mining sector in Western Australia.”
Mr Edlinger said urban infill and unit development supply in the western suburbs will definitely remain limited.
Construction costs have escalated significantly since the housing grants of the Covid era, while Metronet has absorbed many of the tradies needed to develop residential infill projects.
“The western suburbs property market is typically driven by white collar executive employment growth - mining executives who are either returning as expats or are drawn from overseas or interstate for the job opportunities, and this white-collar employment growth in WA doesn’t seem to be abating in the long term.”
Revandy Rasyad, Communications Manager, Perth Realty Group, was another who said the western suburbs were set for further capital growth.
“People in Perth very much prefer free-standing property rather than apartments, so there will always be a strong demand for houses in that area.”
The shift in sentiment around the direction of interest rates would have a disproportionate impact on western suburbs properties, he added.
“The long-term outlook for the western suburbs is promising, as these places will always be sought after due to location, proximity to the beach, access to amenities, and entertainment offerings.
“The Perth market is not nearing its peak, however, that could change if rates rise.
“Further rate hikes will reduce the borrowing power of buyers, which could then lead to a decrease in the number of available buyers in the upper-mid price range.”
