Huge prediction for Brisbane property prices in 2025
Brisbane’s enduring appeal and solid fundamentals position it for continued capital growth in 2025, but not at the juggernaut pace of the past couple of years.
November 2024 saw Brisbane’s property market continue to display its characteristic resilience and growth trajectory, underpinned by solid fundamentals like limited supply and strong demand.
This performance stands out against the backdrop of a softening national property market, with several capital cities, including Brisbane, experiencing declining momentum.
Brisbane’s housing market, buoyed by factors such as continuing buyer demand, employment growth, and economic prosperity, remains a leader in Australia’s property landscape.
Compared to Sydney and Melbourne, which have seen declines in dwelling values over the past month, Brisbane recorded a 0.6 per cent increase, bringing its quarterly growth to 1.8 per cent and annual growth to an impressive 12.1 per cent. By contrast, Melbourne’s dwelling values fell by 0.4 per cent, and Sydney experienced a 0.2 per cent decline, according to CoreLogic.
While Brisbane has firmed its position as the second most expensive capital city market in Australia based on median house and unit values, Brisbane’s relative affordability is evident in its price per square metre.
While Sydney retains the highest median house prices and price per sqm, when assessed this way Brisbane is more affordable than Melbourne. This is because lot sizes are typically smaller in Melbourne than in Brisbane. Melbourne remains the second most expensive capital based on the median value per square metre for houses, in stark contrast to the rankings when median house values alone are used as the benchmark.
Part of the reason behind the surge in values in Brisbane in recent years was the greater demand for larger homes and bigger blocks, which has increased the value of space, with the price per sqm almost doubling in the past five years.
Sales and listing trends
Sales volumes in Brisbane grew by 6.1 per cent over the past year, supported by consistent buyer demand.
Auction clearance rates softened slightly to 58.2 per cent in November, and the number of registered bidders per auction averaged 2.5, a slight decrease compared to October’s 2.7.
Longer term listing trend in Brisbane highlight the ongoing supply constraint with Brisbane still well below the 5 year average.
New listings in Brisbane were 6.5 per cent higher in November than a year ago and 1.2 per cent higher than in October, which was a relief for buyers having a few more options to consider.
Total listings also rose by 8.5 per cent month-on-month, reflecting a modest accumulation of stock.
This contrasts with cities like Sydney and Melbourne, where higher listing volumes have led to more stagnant or declining prices in recent months.
Rental market affordability
Brisbane’s rental market continues to grapple with affordability challenges. While vacancy rates remain at a tight 1 per cent, rents for houses and units each grew by 3.6 per cent annually in November, marginally slower than the previous month.
Vacancy rates in Brisbane fell from 1.1 per cent in October to 1 per cent in November, however, rent growth has been decelerating. House rents and unit rents recorded a further deceleration compared to last month, with annual growth now sitting at 3.6 per cent at the end of November.
Gross yields for houses dropped slightly month-on-month and are now 3.4 per cent and for units gross yields remained unchanged at 4.5 per cent.
Despite this, Brisbane’s rental affordability has declined significantly over the past four years. In 2020, most inner-city suburbs were considered affordable for a range of household types; now, dual-income families are often the only ones able to rent in these areas.
Other capital cities have experienced sharper declines in affordability.
For instance, Perth saw a 13 per cent drop in rental affordability over the past year, while Brisbane recorded a smaller 4 per cent decline. The share of income spend on rent in each capital city market shows that Brisbane, along with Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart, has moderately unaffordable rents, while Sydney and Perth are now considered unaffordable.
This trend underscores the widespread pressures on renters across Australia.
Brisbane dwelling values
House values in Brisbane increased by 0.6 per cent in November, bringing the median house price to $974,396. Over the past year, house values have risen by 10.2 per cent, supported by sustained demand and limited supply.
This growth rate positions Brisbane as the second most expensive capital city market by median house price across Australia.
Units in Brisbane outperformed houses, with values rising by 0.8 per cent in November and 2.7 per cent over the quarter.
Annual unit price growth reached 16.2 per cent, underscoring the appeal of units for first-home buyers and investors seeking affordability and higher yields.
The median unit price now stands at $677,810.
Outlook for Brisbane property in 2025
Looking ahead, Brisbane is forecast to record dwelling price increases of 9 per cent to 14 per cent in 2025, marking its 12th consecutive year of growth.
A chronic undersupply of housing, coupled with strong interstate migration and employment growth, is expected to support these gains.
Despite the seasonal slowdown expected in December, buyers should be prepared for a competitive market come January.
Brisbane’s supply-demand imbalance and underlying fundamentals suggest a strong start to 2025.
