Property sales roar past Covid peak as supply crunch fuels potential price surge
Transaction volumes are climbing above pandemic-era highs in several markets, signalling fresh price pressure as supply struggles to keep pace with demand.
A shortage of supply coupled with growing demand means many Australian property markets have finally surpassed their Covid selling frenzy peak.
The Covid lockdown period unleashed a remarkable national sales boom, resulting in significant price growth, which many thought was a one-off phenomenon, but new sales data shows there are very high transaction levels being achieved in a number of Australian markets.
This is an important indicator of where prices will likely rise next, as a location with sales numbers rising quarter by quarter is likely to experience a subsequent reaction with prices.
Darwin, Adelaide, Canberra and regional Victoria are now all achieving higher transaction levels than in the December quarter of 2021, with others on the cusp of breaking the barrier.
Darwin exceeded its 2021 peak in mid-2025 and is continuing to rise, Adelaide sales volumes exceeded the Covid peak in the September 2025 quarter and in the December 2025 quarter are now 10 per cent above the Covid high.
The Canberra market is showing increasing strength and has now surpassed the sales levels of the December 2021 quarter.
During the Covid boom, regional Victoria was one of the nation’s strongest markets, with notable price growth from 2020 to 2022. As of the December 2025 quarter, it has also topped its Covid peak.
Despite strong transaction levels, both Melbourne and Sydney are not yet achieving the same transaction levels as the Covid peak – although Melbourne is only marginally below that late 2021 level.
Regional New South Wales transaction levels are now just 8 per cent down on the Covid peak, while regional South Australia, which has been rising and rising in the past 12 months, still remains a little below the Covid boom levels.
In Perth, stock levels remain especially low, driving strong property price growth. There are currently 3,669 listings, compared to an average around the 12,000 mark.
Buyers overall are navigating limited listings, keeping competition high.
Despite a 1.9 per cent dip in early 2026 compared to 2025, transaction volumes remain historically solid (5.6 per cent higher than the five-year average). The total volume of residential real estate transactions in 2026 is expected to push towards 580,000, supported by buyer activity, though inventory remains low.
