Don't let an empty open home talk you out of a good property

Real estate agents are broadly describing this market as “difficult”.

The vendors are difficult. The buyers are difficult. Negotiations are difficult, and campaigns are difficult. The media commentary is negative, and many buyers are throwing out offers that are 15-20 per cent below market value.

Social proof is also supporting this. Buyers glance around a half empty room and quietly recalibrate what they think a property is worth, not on the numbers they’ve researched, but on how many other people showed up to also inspect.

Social proof is a common psychological shortcut we all use when uncertain: we look at what others are doing and treat it as evidence of what is correct.

In a buyer’s market, this is one of the most persistent traps I see buyers fall into, and in the current climate it is catching more people than usual.

A market that has gone quiet

In Melbourne, where I work with clients every week, forecasters are pointing to further softness through the back half of 2026 before any recovery takes hold. Not to mention the state election in late November; yet another key date in the diary that could pause buyer sentiment.

Australian property prices fell 0.7 per cent per cent nationally in July, the steepest monthly decline since December 2022. Three interest rate rises this year have eaten into borrowing capacity, and changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax settings have added another layer of hesitation to an already cautious buyer pool.

Stock levels tell the same story. In some markets, listings have swung from well below the five-year average to comfortably above it, handing buyers genuine leverage for the first time in years.

Auction bidder numbers are thinner, open homes have modest attendees instead of queues at the door, and agents are fielding low-ball offers every week.

And yet, first home buyers are still behaving as though someone needs to give them permission to act.

The trouble with an empty room

In a hot market social proof causes overpaying, where buyers chase a crowd of competing bidders and lose sight of their own numbers.

We now find ourselves in the opposite of FOMO. When a property sits on the market for a few weeks, or an auction draws only one (or zero) bidders, buyers quietly conclude that the absence of a crowd must mean the absence of value. Something must be wrong with the property. Or perhaps the vendor’s price expectation is too high. They wait, they watch, and tell themselves they will move when someone else does first.

The irony is that a downturn is often precisely when a careful, well researched buyer has the most room to move, and the least reason to wait for a stranger’s nod of approval.

Why first home buyers feel it hardest

Every buyer is susceptible to this, but first home buyers carry it more heavily than most.

A seasoned buyer has been through two or three cycles. They know a slow Saturday doesn’t mean a bad property, because they have watched passed-in auctions produce reasonable prices post-auction before. They have a bigger personal library of comparisons to draw on.

A first home buyer usually has none of that. This is their first auction, their first contract, often their first time reading a comparable sales report at all.

With no internal benchmark to fall back on, they lean entirely on external cues, such as the size of the crowd, or whether another buyer looks serious, to tell them whether their own judgement can be trusted. When we add a steady stream of media headlines about falling prices, rate rises and policy change, it’s little wonder this cohort is more nervous than most right now.

A quiet room doesn’t mean a property lacks value.

It can suggest that pricing is too high, but it can also suggest that consumer confidence is low and the cohort most suited to the property are nervous first home buyers.

It may suggest the agent hasn’t run the campaign well, or it could be due to other factors such as presentation or access to the property.

How to buy without waiting for the crowd

The fix isn’t confidence for its own sake. Mitigating the risk of falling prey to social proof requires solid preparation. From careful pricing analysis to thorough due diligence, the preparation needs to be solid enough that you don’t need anyone else’s validation.

For those who are trying to buy in auction-centric markets, knowing the clearance rate for your specific area, not just the city-wide figure is advantageous.

A capital city clearance rate in the 50s or low 60s tells you the broader market has cooled, but not why a particular auction was poorly attended. Assess the clearance rate for the suburb, or dwelling type you’re buying in over the last month or two.

A soft rate across an entire pocket is a genuine market signal. A soft rate on one property in a suburb that’s otherwise holding up is more likely about the auction campaign than the property.

Table the price movement for your own segment, not the national headline.

National and city figures blend houses and units, inner and outer suburbs, entry level and premium stock, and these can move in opposite directions in the same month. In fact, many of our markets are currently running on a multi-speed basis, particularly when we profile price bands.

I suggest an analytical buyer could build a simple table of median price movement for the suburb, property type and price bracket you’re shopping in, over the last three to six months. If your segment has fallen 2 per cent while the coverage you’re reading talks about a national 5 per cent correction, that’s the number that should shape your offer, not the 5 per cent figure.

Do the comparable sales work properly, (before auction day), not while you’re standing in the street second guessing yourself. Set three price points in advance: what you’d be thrilled to pay, what you consider fair, and your genuine walk away figure. Write them down and remain accountable to them.

Ask the agent direct, specific questions about buyer interest rather than attempting to read the room. How many contracts have gone out? How many building and pest inspections have been booked? Agents will usually tell you more than a quiet crowd will, if you ask directly.

Have your contract reviewed early, so you are prepared if the property receives an acceptable offer prior to auction day.

The market doesn’t need to be crowded for a property to be worth buying. Some of the best purchases happen in the quietest rooms. You just need to trust your own due diligence and pricing analysis enough to be the first one to bid in one.