Brisbane property market holds firm as rising rates and global tensions test momentum

March 2026 has reinforced Brisbane’s position as one of Australia’s strongest-performing property markets, even as the operating environment becomes more complex.

According to Cotality’s Home Value Index to 31 March 2026, Brisbane dwelling values rose 1.8 per cent for the month, 0.2 percentage points above February’s 1.6 per cent result, with annual growth accelerating to 19.0 per cent from 17.3 per cent.

The median dwelling value now sits at $1,101,151, up from $1,080,538 a month earlier, with Brisbane values rising 85.3 per cent over the past five years.

Interest rates, inflation and consumer confidence impact housing outlook

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) followed its February rate rise with a further 25 basis point increase in March, lifting the cash rate to 4.10 per cent, which is just 25 basis points below the recent cycle high.

The decision reflects inflationary pressures that intensified through the second half of 2025, with the Board signalling inflation is likely to remain above target for some time, with risks skewed to the upside.

Adding to the challenging backdrop, the ANZ–Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index fell to its lowest level since the series began in 1973, driven by concerns around the Middle East conflict, rising energy costs, and the prospect of further rate increases.

Brisbane property price growth and forecasts for 2026

These conditions have prompted SQM Research to revise its 2026 national housing forecasts sharply downward.

Under its updated base case, weighted capital city price growth is now expected to sit between zero and 3 per cent, down from the previous 6 per cent to 10 per cent range.

Brisbane, however, is still forecast to outperform, with growth of 7 per cent to 11 per cent, albeit revised down from the earlier 10 per cent to 15 per cent projection.

Key drivers of the downgrade include energy price pass-through, subdued wage growth amid AI-driven labour market changes, and ongoing affordability erosion. While potential government energy rebates may provide some relief, SQM does not expect these to materially restore market momentum.

Perth, Darwin, Adelaide and Brisbane retain the strongest outlooks, while Sydney (forecast -6 per cent to -2 per cent) and Melbourne (-4 per cent to -1 per cent) face the greatest headwinds.

Brisbane auction clearance rates and buyer sentiment trends

According to Cotality, auction clearance rates eased to an average of 65.55 per cent throughout March, down from 70.4 per cent in February, although still higher than a year earlier. This reflects a more cautious buyer mindset amid rising rates, global uncertainty, higher living costs, and potential policy changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax.

On-the-ground observations across Brisbane auctions show that many passed-in properties still attracted multiple bidders.

The issue was not a lack of demand, but rather a widening gap between buyer expectations and vendor pricing. As is typical in Queensland, many of these properties subsequently transact via private treaty.

Brisbane housing supply and listing volumes remain constrained

Listing volumes remain close to historic lows, with total advertised stock approximately 21.9 per cent below year-ago levels. This stands in contrast to Sydney and Melbourne, where listings are closer to long-term averages.

This structural undersupply — in place since 2020 — continues to underpin competition for quality assets. Investors account for 40.1 per cent of Queensland finance commitments, while first-home buyers, supported by October 2025 incentives, now represent 27.3 per cent (up from 25.3 per cent in February), driving demand in the sub-$1 million segment.

Brisbane dwelling values — prices continue to climb

Brisbane’s median dwelling value of $1,101,151 at the end of March represents monthly growth of 1.8 per cent, quarterly growth of 5.1 per cent and annual growth of 19.0 per cent, all improvements on February’s figures.

PropTrack’s Home Price Index also recorded positive monthly growth of 0.7 per cent, broadly aligning with the Cotality trend.

Cotality’s stratified index shows a clear divergence across value segments. Over the three months to February 2026, lower quartile dwellings rose 6.4 per cent, the middle 50 per cent increased 5.5 per cent, and the top quartile grew 3.4 per cent.

This reflects ongoing serviceability constraints, which are directing buyer demand towards more affordable price points, a trend reinforced by elevated first-home buyer activity below the $1 million threshold.

Brisbane property prices — median value and growth trends

The median house value in Greater Brisbane rose to $1,207,718 in March, up from $1,175,981 in February. Monthly growth of 1.7 per cent was 0.2 percentage points higher than February’s result.

Quarterly growth improved to 4.9 per cent (from 4.6 per cent), while annual growth accelerated to 18.5 per cent from 16.7 per cent, placing Brisbane second nationally behind Perth.

PropTrack reported house price growth of 0.6 per cent for March, indicating a modest reacceleration.

Brisbane unit prices — strongest growth segment in 2026

Brisbane’s unit market remains one of the strongest performers nationally. The median unit value reached $865,548 in March, up from $844,844 in February, with monthly growth of 2.0 per cent.

Quarterly growth edged higher to 6.1 per cent, while annual growth accelerated to 21.5 per cent, again placing Brisbane second nationally.

PropTrack similarly recorded 0.7 per cent growth for units over the month.

Brisbane rental market — vacancy rates, rents and yields

Brisbane’s rental market remains extremely tight, with a vacancy rate of just 0.9 per cent, well below the level associated with a balanced market.

Annual house rent growth increased to 6.7 per cent in March (from 6.3 per cent), while unit rent growth eased slightly to 6.7 per cent from 6.8 per cent. Both remain above inflation, compounding affordability pressures for tenants.

Gross rental yields have compressed marginally as price growth outpaces rents. Houses are yielding 3.1 per cent (down from 3.2 per cent), while units sit at 3.9 per cent (down from 4.0 per cent).

Rents account for a 6.6 per cent weighting in CPI and typically feed into inflation with a lag of around twelve months, suggesting ongoing upward pressure in the period ahead.

Brisbane property market outlook — what to expect in 2026

March 2026 delivered another month of strong headline results for Brisbane, but the market is clearly entering a more complex phase.

Rising interest rates, record-low consumer confidence, geopolitical instability, and uncertainty around property taxation are all weighing on sentiment and are likely to moderate growth in the months ahead.

However, Brisbane’s fundamental drivers remain firmly intact. Supply is critically constrained, listings are nearly 22 per cent below year-ago levels, and vacancy rates remain exceptionally tight at 0.9 per cent.

Demand continues to exceed supply, the key reason Brisbane is still recording growth while Sydney and Melbourne soften.

Buyers are expected to remain cautious through Easter and into autumn. However, unless listing volumes rise materially, demand appears sufficient to maintain upward pressure on values, particularly for high-quality, investment-grade assets.

While the pace of growth is likely to ease, a sharp correction appears unlikely given the structural undersupply. The market is transitioning, not reversing, as Brisbane moves into the second quarter of 2026.