Brisbane prices still rising but slowing momentum signals investor turning point

Brisbane’s property market continued to demonstrate resilience in April 2026, recording positive dwelling value growth even as the pace moderated from the elevated levels observed earlier in the year.

According to Cotality’s Home Value Index, Brisbane dwelling values rose 1.2 per cent over the month, a deceleration of 0.6 percentage points from March’s 1.8 per cent increase, yet still among the strongest monthly performances of any Australian capital city.

The national picture is increasingly divergent. Sydney and Melbourne recorded monthly declines of 0.6 per cent each, while Brisbane, Adelaide (1.1 per cent), Darwin (1.3 per cent) and Perth (2.1 per cent) continued to advance.

Over the quarter, Brisbane’s 4.7 per cent growth compares favourably with the combined capitals index of just 1.1 per cent. On an annual basis, Brisbane’s 19.7 per cent gain remains well above the national figure of 9.8 per cent.

Interest rates and confidence begin to weigh

A moderation in momentum is nonetheless evident. Cotality’s Research Director, Tim Lawless, notes that affordability and serviceability constraints have been weighing on demand since late 2025.

The additional pressure of rising interest rates, with the Reserve Bank of Australia lifting the cash rate to 4.1 per cent following increases in February and March, is now taking effect.

Consumer confidence has deteriorated sharply, with the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index falling 12.5 per cent to 80.1 points, returning near historic lows not seen outside the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s or the pandemic period.

Migration trends shift as affordability tightens

Queensland’s population growth story is also evolving. Net interstate migration into Queensland over the year to September 2025 was 19,092 persons, the lowest level since June 2017.

Arrivals totalled 97,705, the fewest since June 2016, while departures remained relatively steady at 78,613.

This moderation likely reflects the erosion of Queensland’s affordability advantage following several years of strong price growth.

Nevertheless, Queensland continues to attract more interstate arrivals than any other state, with only Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia recording positive net interstate migration over the period.

Listings rise slightly, but supply remains constrained

Auction clearance rates in Brisbane averaged 55.18 per cent across April, remaining above year-ago levels.

Nationally, clearance rates have held below 55 per cent since late March, the weakest result since July 2022, highlighting softer buyer demand across major markets, with Brisbane continuing to outperform.

New listing activity recorded a modest uplift, with SQM Research reporting 7,120 new listings in March. This represents a 2.9 per cent rise on February and a 3.5 per cent increase year-on-year.

Total listings reached 13,832, up 6.3 per cent month-on-month, yet still 15.4 per cent below March 2025 levels, reinforcing the ongoing supply constraint underpinning prices.

Encouragingly, old listings (properties on the market for more than 180 days) fell to 1,446, down 1.6 per cent from February and 18.2 per cent lower year-on-year. This indicates that stale stock is being absorbed and that vendors are generally achieving outcomes without significant discounting.

Construction costs continue to challenge supply

Construction of new dwellings remains under significant pressure. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, residential build costs escalated sharply in 2024–25.

Nationally, new house build costs rose 7.1 per cent, townhouse costs increased 18.8 per cent, and apartment costs rose 18.2 per cent.

In Queensland, house construction costs rose 1.8 per cent, townhouse costs increased 12.3 per cent, and apartment construction costs surged 18.5 per cent.

The average cost to build a new apartment in Queensland now stands at $708,680.

That is materially higher than in New South Wales ($555,995) or Victoria ($529,380).

This is placing significant strain on project feasibility and presents a direct challenge to the Federal Housing Accord’s target of 1.2 million new homes over five years.

Brisbane dwelling values

Brisbane’s median dwelling value reached $1,116,180 as of 1 May 2026. Monthly growth of 1.2 per cent represents a moderation from 1.8 per cent in March, while quarterly growth of 4.7 per cent has eased from 5.1 per cent in the prior period.

On an annual basis, Brisbane’s 19.7 per cent growth represents a slight acceleration from 19.0 per cent to March, reflecting the strong trajectory established through 2025 and into 2026.

Over the past decade, dwelling values have risen 119.5 per cent — the highest growth rate among Australia’s capital cities.

Segment analysis reveals a nuanced picture. The Cotality stratified hedonic index shows the lower quartile rising 6.4 per cent over the quarter, the middle 50 per cent increasing 5.7 per cent, and the upper quartile gaining 3.9 per cent.

Compared with March, growth in the middle and upper segments has firmed slightly, even as the headline rate has eased.

This indicates that while affordability-driven demand continues to support entry-level markets, momentum is also building across higher price points.

Brisbane house values

Brisbane’s median house value reached $1,222,906 in April 2026, up from $1,207,718 in March. Monthly growth of 1.2 per cent represents a deceleration from 1.7 per cent, while quarterly growth of 4.5 per cent has eased from 4.9 per cent.

Annual house price growth of 19.1 per cent has strengthened from 18.5 per cent recorded in March, continuing to outperform the combined capitals average of 9.9 per cent and exceeding Adelaide (12.1 per cent), Sydney (4.4 per cent) and Melbourne (2.5 per cent).

Brisbane unit values

Brisbane’s median unit value rose to $876,474 in April, up from $865,548 in March, reflecting monthly growth of 1.4 per cent. This represents a moderation from 2.0 per cent in the prior month.

Quarterly growth remains strong at 5.5 per cent, while annual growth has accelerated to 22.6 per cent from 21.5 per cent.

Brisbane’s annual unit growth significantly outperformed the combined capitals average of 6.4 per cent, placing it ahead of Adelaide (13.4 per cent), Sydney (3.4 per cent) and Melbourne (0.9 per cent), and second only to Perth (27.9 per cent), while also exceeding Darwin (20.6 per cent).

Outlook: moderation, not correction

Brisbane’s property market remains one of the strongest performers nationally as 2026 progresses, although the data increasingly points to a controlled moderation rather than any sharp correction.

Three key headwinds continue to shape the outlook: rising interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty and domestic policy risk. Ongoing unrest in the Gulf region is weighing on global economic sentiment, placing upward pressure on energy prices and supply chains, with flow-on effects for the Australian economy.

At the same time, proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax ahead of the May 2026 Federal Budget have introduced uncertainty for investors seeking clarity before committing capital.

Rising interest rates remain the most immediate constraint, with financial markets pricing in at least two further increases through 2026. Higher borrowing costs are already reducing purchasing power, with open home attendance declining and buyer activity softening.

Despite this, supply-demand imbalances persist, particularly at more affordable price points, where buyers continue to outnumber sellers.

At the prestige end, conditions are more balanced, with greater choice and longer decision-making timeframes, although quality properties continue to achieve strong prices with minimal discounting.

Brisbane’s structural fundamentals, namely constrained housing supply, ongoing population growth and a decade of strong capital appreciation, remain intact.

For investors with a long-term outlook, the city continues to present a compelling case, even as near-term conditions moderate and the broader economic environment requires a more disciplined approach.