Brisbane houses power past $1 million median as price growth surges into 2026

Brisbane’s housing market shrugged off affordability pressures in November, recording another powerful surge that has pushed the city’s median dwelling value beyond $1 million and firmly entrenched Queensland’s capital as one of the nation’s strongest performers heading into 2026.

Cotality’s Home Value Index shows Brisbane dwelling values rose 1.9 per cent in November, lifting quarterly growth to 5.5 per cent and annual growth to 12.8 per cent, with the median now sitting just above $1.01 million.

The result builds on October’s already-brisk 1.8 per cent lift and extends Brisbane’s run as a frontrunner among Australia’s capital cities.

Only Perth is currently growing faster, posting another standout monthly rise of 2.4 per cent, while Adelaide matched Brisbane’s 1.9 per cent gain but recorded slightly softer quarterly results.

Sydney and Melbourne, by contrast, lagged with monthly growth of just 0.5 per cent and 0.3 per cent, reinforcing the divide between the mid-sized and major capitals.

Sub-$1 million competition still fierce

On the ground, buyer activity in Brisbane remains heavily skewed towards more affordable price points. The sub-$1 million segment — now critical for many buyers using the expanded First Home Buyer Guarantee Scheme — remained white-hot in November.

Competition also intensified between $1 million and $1.5 million, with multiple-offer scenarios now the norm for well-located houses, units and townhouses. At present, six or more offers on quality stock is not uncommon, and buyers who hesitate are quickly left behind.

This competitive environment is reflected in auction results. Brisbane’s clearance rate lifted to just under 74 per cent in November, up from around 72 per cent in October and well above last year’s mid-50 per cent range.

Median days on market remain tight at about 21 days, roughly a week faster than the long-term average.

Investors and first-home buyers driving demand

Demand is being underpinned by both investors and first home buyers. In Queensland, investors account for around 38.3 per cent of housing finance commitments, while first home buyers make up roughly 27 per cent — an unusually high combined share that continues to amplify competition.

Domain estimates the expanded First Home Guarantee Scheme could lift national home prices by 3.5 to 6.6 per cent in its first year, largely by concentrating demand into capped price segments. For Brisbane, where the new threshold sits at $1 million, this points to sustained pressure on the lower and mid-price tiers through 2026.

Investor confidence also remains robust. The Australian Property Investor Magazine Q3 2025 Sentiment Report still ranks Queensland as the most attractive state for investment over the next 12 months. Around 69 per cent of respondents intend to buy as investors, with a clear preference for houses but rising interest in townhouses, villas and even commercial property as buyers search for value.

This suggests investor demand will remain a structural driver through 2026, particularly in Brisbane’s middle-ring suburbs where yields are stronger and rental demand runs deep.

Forecasts still point to further growth

Forward-looking forecasts remain bullish, albeit at a more moderate pace than the explosive growth of the past two years.

Louis Christopher’s Boom & Bust 2025 report projects Brisbane dwelling prices to rise across all four macro scenarios in 2026, with growth ranging from 8 per cent to 18 per cent. The base case points to 10 to 15 per cent growth, with stronger outcomes tied to an improved economic backdrop.

Domain’s 2026 Forecast Report expects Brisbane house prices to rise another 5 per cent next year, following an estimated 9 to 10 per cent lift through 2025. Units are forecast to outperform, with growth of around 7 per cent, the fastest of any capital city.

This reflects a structural pivot towards affordability as detached houses push through new price ceilings.

Supply remains the market’s biggest constraint

On the supply side, little has changed. Brisbane remains chronically undersupplied.

According to SQM Research, new listings and total listings are lower than a year ago, with stock levels well below long-term averages, a pattern mirrored in Perth, Adelaide and Darwin.

This persistent shortage remains the single most powerful force underpinning Brisbane’s price performance.

Macro policy settings are also tightening. The RBA held the cash rate at 3.6 per cent in November, and markets no longer expect near-term cuts. From February 2026, APRA will also cap loans with a debt-to-income ratio of six or more at 20 per cent of new lending.

Cotality estimates just 5.5 per cent of recent loans fall into this high-DTI category, meaning the immediate impact may be limited. However, it clearly signals regulators’ intent to restrain leverage late in the cycle.

Perhaps the most surprising development is the rebound in household confidence. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index jumped 12.5 per cent in November to 103.8, marking the first optimistic reading in almost four years.

While one data point does not make a trend, it helps explain why buyers remain willing to stretch for quality property despite record affordability pressures.

Brisbane dwelling values

Brisbane dwelling values rose 1.9 per cent in November, up from 1.8 per cent in October. Quarterly growth lifted to 5.5 per cent, while annual growth accelerated to 12.8 per cent. The median dwelling value now sits at $1,015,767, up from $992,864 a month earlier.

By comparison, the combined capitals posted 1.0 per cent monthly and 3.1 per cent quarterly growth, with annual gains of 7.1 per cent. Perth remains the only capital growing faster than Brisbane across both monthly and quarterly measures.

Growth is also becoming more evenly distributed across Brisbane’s value bands. While the lower quartile previously led the market, middle and upper segments are now narrowing the gap — indicating the upswing is broadening beyond just affordable suburbs.

PropTrack’s index confirmed this trend, showing Brisbane values up 0.6 per cent in November.

Brisbane houses rose 1.8 per cent in November, matching October’s gain. Quarterly growth now sits at 5.3 per cent, with annual growth at 12.2 per cent.

The median house value lifted from $1,087,183 to $1,111,431 in just one month, an increase of roughly $24,000. PropTrack also reported a 0.6 per cent monthly rise.

Units remain the quiet achiever of this cycle. Median unit values climbed 2.2 per cent in November, following a 1.9 per cent rise in October. Quarterly growth now sits at 6.3 per cent, with annual growth at 15.8 per cent.

The median unit value has lifted to $792,896, edging closer to the $800,000 threshold.

With around 94 per cent of Brisbane suburbs still reporting median unit values below $1 million, compared with just 43 per cent of house markets, units remain the primary entry point for many buyers and investors.

Brisbane’s tight rental market

Brisbane’s rental market remains exceptionally tight. Vacancy sat at 1.0 per cent in October, barely easing from 0.9 per cent.

Annual rent growth is re-accelerating:

• House rents: up 6.0 per cent

• Unit rents: up 6.9 per cent

Gross rental yields have softened slightly as prices rise faster than rents. House yields now sit around 3.3 per cent, while units offer roughly 4.1 per cent.

Low vacancy is also reducing listings as owners struggle to secure rentals between transactions, reinforcing supply scarcity.

Outlook through 2026

Brisbane’s spring selling season closed with strong momentum. Prices continue to rise faster than the national average, rental markets remain tight, and buyers and investors are still competing aggressively for well-located stock.

There are challenges ahead. Affordability sits at record extremes, rate cuts appear off the table for now, and APRA’s new lending controls will add some friction. At the same time, Brisbane continues to suffer from structurally low construction and chronically tight listings.

Unless supply materially lifts or demand weakens via recession, policy shock or rising unemployment, the balance of probabilities still points to further price growth through 2026, albeit at a slower pace.

Scarcity remains the defining theme.