Brisbane downturn gathers pace as buyers retreat

Brisbane’s property market weakened further through August 2026, confirming that the slowdown which emerged after the May Federal Budget has become a broader and more established downturn.

Cotality recorded a 1.0 per cent fall in Brisbane dwelling values over the month, following the 0.6 per cent decline in July. Values now sit 2.7 per cent below the May peak, although they remain 2.8 per cent higher since the start of 2026 and 10.8 per cent higher than a year ago.

This is a market that has clearly lost momentum, but not one experiencing a deep correction.

Brisbane is also part of a national slowdown.

Over the quarter Brisbane is down 2.7 per cent, a shallower decline than Sydney (-4.7 per cent), Melbourne (-3.9 per cent), Perth (-3.2 per cent) and Canberra (-2.8 per cent).

On an annual basis Brisbane remains one of the stronger capitals, up 10.8 per cent and trailing only Perth (15.6 per cent) and Darwin (14.6 per cent), ahead of Adelaide (8.6 per cent), Hobart (8.1 per cent) and the negative annual results now recorded in Sydney and Melbourne.

The more important change is happening in buyer behaviour.

The API Magazine Q2 2026 Property Sentiment Report found that only 24 per cent of respondents were positive about the property market, while 48 per cent were negative.

Government policy or legislative change was the leading factor stopping people from purchasing an investment property, nominated by 28 per cent of respondents. Queensland still ranked first for perceived investment prospects over the next 12 months, selected by 35 per cent of respondents, yet only 17 per cent of purchases over the prior three months occurred in Queensland.

That disconnect is consistent with what we are seeing on the ground in Brisbane. Investors may still like the long-term story, but many are not buying established property right now.

Tenanted properties are consequently taking much longer to sell, because one of their natural buyer groups has stepped away following the Federal Budget changes. First home buyers have also been surprisingly inactive, particularly at the affordable end of the market. This is the cohort the Budget was intended to assist, yet many remain nervous about values falling further and are choosing to wait.

That hesitation is showing up in supply and selling conditions.

SQM Research recorded an 18 per cent monthly increase in total Brisbane listings between June and July, the largest increase of any capital city. August figures show total listings have been somewhat stable since the July jump.

Cotality’s data tells the same story, with total listings for the three months to July being 39.5 per cent higher than a year earlier, while median days on market had lengthened to 28 days, compared with 19 days a year earlier.

Cotality also reports sales volumes well below both year-ago and five-year-average levels, with Brisbane transaction activity more than 20 per cent below the same period last year. Auction clearance rates have softened substantially through winter and remain well below longer-term norms.

This build-up in listings is not the result of a flood of new stock.

New listings were still below their five-year average in early August, which means properties are accumulating because they are taking longer to sell, not because more are coming to market. In practical terms, buyers now have more choice, less urgency and more negotiating power, while sellers need to be increasingly realistic about price.

Longer-term supply remains constrained in a different way. Queensland dwelling commencements are up 20.0 per cent over the latest 12 months, while completions are down 2.1 per cent. That gap is a reminder that approvals and starts do not translate immediately into completed homes, and the supply response Brisbane needs will take time to arrive.

Brisbane dwelling values

Cotality places Brisbane’s median dwelling value at $1,080,142 at the end of August, down from $1,104,094 in July. Dwelling values fell 1.0 per cent over the month and 2.7 per cent over the quarter. Annual growth has moderated sharply to 10.8 per cent, from 14.8 per cent a month earlier.

The market segmentation data shows weakness has now spread through all value segments.

For the three months to July, Brisbane’s lower quartile was still up 0.5 per cent, while the middle of the market fell 0.6 per cent and the upper quartile fell 1.2 per cent. In the previous update those segments were up 2.6 per cent, 1.6 per cent and 0.4 per cent. The upper end remains weakest, but the important change is that more affordable property is no longer immune from the slowdown.

PropTrack reported a similar direction, with Brisbane dwelling prices falling 0.3 per cent over August.

Brisbane house values

Brisbane house values fell 1.0 per cent in August, taking the median estimated house value to $1,180,552, $26,487 lower than in July.

Quarterly house values are now down 2.9 per cent, compared with a 0.9 per cent decline in the July reading, while annual growth has slowed from 14.3 per cent to 10.3 per cent. PropTrack also recorded a 0.3 per cent fall in Brisbane house prices through August.

Importantly, the downturn is not uniform across the city.

The three-month house value map shows pockets of inner Brisbane still recording growth above 6 per cent over the quarter, while some nearby middle ring locations are showing declines in the 3 per cent to 6 per cent range.

Brisbane unit values

The unit market also lost momentum more noticeably in August.

Cotality recorded a 1.0 per cent monthly fall in Brisbane unit values, compared with a 0.4 per cent decline in July.

The median estimated unit value is now $854,721, down $20,414 over the month. Over the quarter unit values are down 2.0 per cent, reversing the 0.4 per cent gain reported in July, while annual growth has slowed from 17.1 per cent to 13.2 per cent. PropTrack similarly recorded a 0.5 per cent fall in Brisbane unit prices.

Units had been more resilient because of affordability driven demand, but August suggests even this segment is becoming more exposed to weaker confidence and reduced buyer urgency.

Tentative time for watchful buyers

Brisbane is likely to soften further through spring, although a sharp correction remains unlikely on the evidence currently available.

Demand is weaker, stock has built quickly, days on market are longer and both investors and first home buyers are cautious.

At the same time, the downturn remains modest relative to the extraordinary growth of recent years, rental vacancies are still very tight, and new housing supply remains difficult to deliver quickly.

The market is also becoming increasingly fragmented and should not be assessed as one uniform market.

Owners who are not selling should be careful about reading too much into a softer median, because much of that movement reflects a change in the type of property transacting rather than a like-for-like fall in the value of their own home.

The next phase will reward buyers who can separate short-term discomfort from permanent impairment in value.

The opportunity is not simply to buy because prices have softened, but to buy quality assets that can withstand volatility and benefit when confidence returns. That means focusing on scarcity, land content, income durability, ongoing demand, owner-occupier appeal, replacement cost and long-term utility.