Brisbane boom finished but buyers already eyeing next opportunity

The Brisbane property market has followed most other capitals into the wider downturn, with prices beginning to fall after leading the nation’s biggest bull run over the past decade. 

Over the past ten years, the median dwelling price in the Queensland capital more than doubled, surging a massive 116.6 per cent — more than any other capital — followed by Adelaide (110.1) and Perth (107.2 per cent). 

Apartments have performed particularly spectacularly, shooting the lights out since the outbreak of Covid. 

Brisbane units are the nation’s second most expensive, and only a tiny fraction behind Sydney. 

The median Brisbane unit value is now $875,135, according to property analyst Cotality, just 1.7 per cent below Sydney, where the median unit now costs $889,617. 

Buyers agent Darren Piper, founder and director of Universal Buyers Agents, said prices in some parts of Brisbane have fallen by as much as 10 per cent, presenting buying opportunities for those with a long-term view. 

He said houses Caboolture and Caboolture South on the northern outskirts of the greater Brisbane area, were down by between 5 per cent and 10 per cent. 

“Properties that were $920,000 to $950,000 we’re now buying for $800,000 to $870,000,” he told Australian Property Investor Magazine. 

“There’s some easy equity for those who can get on board and hold long-term.” 

Glenn Price, founder of Price Buyers Agents, said the Brisbane market had changed dramatically and it was now facing a “buyer recession”. 

“What I’m seeing on the ground and at open homes, compared to 12 months ago it’s just light and day,” he said. 

“Then there were buyers everywhere, lines to get into properties. 

“I went to one and it was like a nightclub — they were letting people in as people left, it was two in, two out, it was insane,” Mr Price said. 

Yet it wasn’t all doom and gloom, and there were some opportunities. 

“If you can capitalise and buy something now, it may come down a little bit further, but it’s always going to go back up,” he said.

Apartments lead the local market

According to Cotality, Brisbane dwelling values fell 0.6 per cent in July and were down 0.6 per cent for the quarter. 

Brisbane house prices eased 0.6 per cent in July and 0.9 per cent for the quarter, while the median unit price fell 0.4 per cent in July but remained up 0.4 per cent for the quarter. 

Over the past year, Brisbane apartments were up a substantial 17.1 per cent, with houses up 14.3 per cent in that time. 

Mr Price said Brisbane apartment prices surged post-pandemic, partly driven by southerners moving north. 

“People from Sydney and Melbourne were selling homes for $1 million and buying something better for $600,000 or $650,000,” he said. 

“For a relatively small city like Brisbane, it caused prices to skyrocket.” 

“I’m one of the them, I moved up from Melbourne in Covid times, and prices were absolutely pushed up by that,” Mr Price said. 

Mr Piper said surging Brisbane house prices kicked off the boom in the apartment market. 

“In 2016 to 2019 there was almost a glut of inner-city apartments,” he said. 

“Then inner-city houses became very, very expensive. 

“People were priced out, so got back into apartments, not wanting to sacrifice living in the inner-city,” he said. 

Mr Piper said there had been a surge of interest in commercial property, following changes in early August preventing self-managed super funds (SMSFs) from borrowing to buy residential homes. 

The changes were part of Federal Government’s changes aimed at housing affordability, with the SMSF changes introduced to gain the support of the Greens to pass the new laws. 

“There’s been a massive shift in commercial, basically people who didn’t meet the cut off, as well as those who are just changing their strategy,” Mr Piper said. 

Commercial property typically delivered higher yields, and longer tenancies, although there was often a higher vacancy risk. 

Nationwide, just three capitals remained in positive territory in July, according to Cotality. 

Darwin saw dwelling values grow 0.8 per cent in the month, with dwelling values in Perth and Hobart both up a tiny 0.1 per cent. 

Over the quarter, Sydney saw the biggest price falls, down 4 per cent, followed by Melbourne, down 3.4 per cent and Canberra, down 2.1 per cent. 

The median dwelling value for the nation’s combined capitals was now $1.01m, down 0.9 per cent for the month and down 2.5 per cent for the quarter. 

“Housing market conditions continued to weaken across July, with the downturn encompassing a larger number of cities,” said Cotality’s Head of Research Gerard Burg. 

“The previous strength in the mid-sized capitals has faded as the demand headwinds that have built since late 2025 have impacted across the country.” 

Despite the headwinds, Mr Piper said there were still “quality buyers” in the market — just not in anywhere near the same numbers. 

“Overall, the quality of buyers is there, the quantity is definitely not,” he said. 

“The days of lineups a mile-long at open homes have definitely been and gone.” 

Olympic boost

An anticipated slowdown in 2027 should not be mistaken for a crisis. After five years of exceptional growth, a period of consolidation would represent a normal phase of the property cycle rather than a break in Brisbane’s longer-term trajectory.

The structural case for the city remains compelling. Across every Olympic host city since 1996, residential prices grew faster in the four years after the Games than in the four years leading up to them, averaging 42.5 per cent compared with 23.3 per cent. Brisbane’s current fundamentals also share similarities with Sydney in the lead-up to the 2000 Olympics.

Meanwhile, a $7.1 billion infrastructure program and an enormous construction pipeline are expected to compete for labour and materials, potentially constraining new residential supply through to 2031.

With vacancy rates already hovering near 1 per cent, the foundations for continued rental and capital growth remain firmly in place. For someone on a take-home pay of $70,000 in Brisbane, the median rental price now accounts for 59 per cent of that income, according to data from Everybody’s Home.

For investors, the strongest long-term opportunities are likely to remain in inner and middle-ring suburbs with deep owner-occupier appeal, proximity to Olympic precincts and improved connectivity through projects such as Cross River Rail.